Andrew: Hello readers! I know Sarah and I say at the top of this blog
that we are going to focus on movie reviews, and
for the most part that's true. But because we're avid movie lovers in general
we also have a fascination with the awards shows for films, and that includes
the Academy Awards. And wouldn't you know it, Sarah, but the nominations for
this year's Academy Awards are being announced tomorrow! What timing!
Sarah: Perfect timing works for me! I will definitely be watching “Good
Morning America” tomorrow to watch the nominations unfold. This year has been
an interesting year in movies. For the most part, the "Oscar-worthy"
films have really stood out among the crowd. And, actually, there were some
that fell off the radar *cough* “Warrior” *cough* and that is a real
shame.
A: You're spot on with the real Oscar
candidates standing out above the rest. The real problem comes with guessing
which of the nominees really aren’t front-runners. And with that we're going to
kick off our Oscar Nominations Predictions. Just so you know, we're only going
to focus on the main six categories tonight: Best Supporting Actor and Actress,
Best Lead Actor and Actress, Best Director and Best Picture. Sarah, want to
take a stab at which five gentlemen you think will be the nominees for Best
Supporting Actor?
S: My predictions for Best Supporting
Actor are:
- Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
- Nick Nolte, “Warrior”
- Armie Hammer, “J. Edgar”
- Kenneth Branagh, “My Week With Marilyn”
- Alan Rickman, “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”
Plummer is a shoe-in, and I know it’s
probably in my dreams, but I do think Rickman deserves the nom. Call me crazy but
Rickman and Nolte were the only ones to bring me to tears this year.
A: I have a couple of the same ones
as you, and a couple of different ones. The ones I agree with you on are
Plummer, Nolte and Branagh. But I have to disagree with you on Hammer and Rickman.
While I think they both did a great job, I think Jonah Hill will get recognized
for his low-key job in "Moneyball" and that Albert Brooks will get
recognized for his portrayal of a mob boss in the underrated "Drive."
S: Alright,
I agree that Jonah could pull a sneak attack. I do love that we both have some
young blood on the lists. I did not like Brooks in 'Drive' so I will have to
leave it at that. Ok, Andrew, what about the Supporting Actresses?
A: For
Supporting Actress my predictions are:
- Shailene Woodley, "The
Descendents”
- Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
- Jessica Chastain, "The Help"
- Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"
- Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”
Spencer’s
been the front-runner for a while so she’s an easy choice, and Chastain has had
a breakout year (yet I haven’t seen any of her films this year). I'm really
hoping McCarthy gets the nom because she deserves it and because it’s for a
comedic role.
S: I agree
with all of them except I think that McCarthy will be replaced with Janet
McTeer. I am reading really good things about her performance in “Albert Nobbs”
as a powerful, swaggering cross-dresser. It will be interesting. The Academy
may decide that Woodley is a little green to be up with the big girls. It‘s
really a toss-up for many of these except Spencer. Best Actor?
A: While I
am interested in all the other awards, Best Actor is actually the award I think
is the tightest. My predictions:
- George Clooney, "The Descendents"
- Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"
- Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"
- Leonardo DiCaprio, “J. Edgar”
- Michael Fassbender, “Shame”
Clooney got
to cry over an unfaithful wife in a coma, Dujardin is the star of a silent film
in 2011 and Pitt played real-life Oakland A's GM Billy Beane - the Academy eats
that stuff up. The last two spots are the tough ones to pick, and I'm going to
guess the Academy goes for Leo's performance in "J. Edgar" even
though I wasn't a fan, and (I hope) Michael Fassbender gets nominated for
"Shame.” He had an awesome year all-around but will probably get a nod for
playing a sex-addict.
S: For this
one, you and I are exactly on the same page. I would love to see Fassbender get
a nomination because he is the future of Hollywood. He gives a powerhouse
performance in every one of his roles. Not looking over the fact that he is
incredibly good looking (I'm only human, c'mon) he is able to take the movie
that he is in to the next level of art.
Ok, enough
fawning over him. It's time for my predictions for Best Actress.
- Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
- Viola Davis, “The Help”
- Michelle Williams, “My Week with
Marilyn”
- Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon
Tattoo”
- Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”
Hands down, Streep
will get a nomination and she should. The woman has been in more movies than
most actors could shake a stick at and she's good at it. She should probably
win too, but that's getting ahead of myself. Automatic nominations also go to Davis and Williams. They
both gave amazing performances in their roles playing such iconic women. Mara threw
herself into creating her version of Lisbeth Salander and it is an amazing
transformation. The last spot is a little hard for me to pick because I have
been hearing amazing things about both Tilda Swinton and Glenn Close for their
roles in “We Need to Talk About Kevin” and “Albert Nobbs,” respectively. My
money would probably be on Glenn Close.
A: To make
this short, I agree with 4 out of your 5 predictions. The only one I'm going to
go differently on is I think Glenn Close misses out and Tilda Swinton gets in.
We haven't seen either movie, so this is pure speculation, but there's just
something about how Close LOOKS in "Albert Nobbs" that strikes me the
wrong way. I don't buy it. I have nothing else to add on the Best Actress
nominees, you said all that needed to be said. So let's move on to Best
Director.
S: Oh man
this is where my expertise fails. I'm not good at predicting. So for my amateur
predictions I am going to say:
- Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
- Alexander Payne, “The Descendents”
- Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
- David Fincher, “The Girl with the
Dragon Tattoo”
- Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
Hazanavicius,
Payne and Scorsese will be automatic. The last one will probably go to Allen
for “Midnight in Paris” but I was not as impressed with that movie as a lot of
people. It was very creative and art nouveau but I'm not sure about it being
this hard-core Oscar film.
Ok, now this
last category is a tough one. Best Picture is tough because this year the
Academy introduced a new formula for determining the number of nominees (a
change from the ten nominees the past two years). Will it be five? Seven? Ten? We
won’t get into the specific formula, so we will just give you our projected top
ten and see where it goes tomorrow.
A: First, let me say that I actually
agree with all of your Best Director guesses. Of the five, I think Fincher is
most likely to get bumped, and probably for "The Help" director, Tate
Taylor. If Fincher does get bumped, I’ll be ticked. He got jobbed last year
when he didn’t win for “The Social Network,” but I digress.
For Best Picture, we'll just list our
top ten and then guess where the cut-off will PROBABLY be. My top ten for the
Best Picture nominees, in order, are:
1.) The Artist
2.) The Descendents
3.) Hugo
4.) The Help
5.) Midnight in Paris
6.) Bridesmaids
7.) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
8.) The Tree of Life
9.) War Horse
10.) Moneyball
And if I had
to guess (and that's what we're doing here) I'll say the cut-off is at
"Dragon Tattoo." I’m probably overestimating there, though. Sarah, what
do you think?
S: I agree with your guesses for Best
Picture. I hate the idea that “Bridesmaids” will get in that list. In my
opinion, it was grossly overrated, emphasis on gross. But I understand that I am
in the minority on that. Well, readers, we know that this was a very
long-winded but...it's the Oscars. It's the definition of long-winded!
A: And after all the writing, and after all that reading if anyone
actual reads this, the Oscar nominations are tomorrow morning at 8:48 AM! So
I'm sure we'll be immediately wrong on a number of these guesses. Thank you,
reader, for giving us your time. And hopefully we weren't TOO long winded!
Tomorrow's post: We review the actual Oscar nominations and give our take on who made it and who didn't.
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